Are cases going down?

We have seen a decrease in national cases over the past two weeks. But, we need to be very cautious in interpreting what that means. The decrease we are seeing are RELATIVE to the cases from the past two weeks – which were high. We still have a ways to go to get back to the daily cases we saw in October or November (which were still too high) and what we saw in the summer. Let me explain:


◾ Our US cases have decreased by 21%. Although that reduction is going in the right direction, we need to keep in mind the ABSOLUTE numbers of cases are still very, very high.

◾ For example, yesterday the US reported 190,630 cases – that is WELL above the 46,000 daily cases on October 1st and 100,000 daily cases on November 3rd. A 21% reduction is good – but that is comparing a reduction from 2 weeks ago when cases were well into the 250,000-daily mark.

◾ Deaths are still increasing, sadly. We are expected to hit 500,000 deaths in February.

◾ Hospitalizations are down slightly – remember that decrease is RELATIVE to the last two weeks – which were abundantly high. So many hospitals continue to be strained.


As a whole, much of the country is well beyond the goal metric of 10 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. You still see quite a bit of dark orange, red, and deep maroon. This, coupled with high positivity rates above 10% in the country, still shows widespread, uncontrolled transmission.


This picture shows were new cases are high and staying high.

TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Are new cases decreasing? Yes-ish. But, frankly they are way too high to celebrate. The new cases and cases per capita are still within the uncontrolled spread range – this means that they can start climbly again very quickly. Remain vigilant, web-peeps. Wash your hands, wear your masks, distance, distance, distance, get the vaccine when you can.


Pictures 1-3:

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