Remember how COVID-19 is exponential? This means it is not a 1 + 1 + 1 +1 virus. It is multiplicative. 1 infection can become 10 very, very quickly. Let me show you:
𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐄 𝟏: 𝐃𝐀𝐈𝐋𝐘 𝐂𝐀𝐒𝐄𝐒 𝐏𝐄𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐘 (𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏) The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is a trusted, independent data-powerhouse, is projecting we could see: – 260,000 PER DAY if we continue doing what we are right now.- 700,000 PER DAY if we ease restrictions similar to what the current administration, Dr. Atlas, and the Great Barrington Declaration advocate for. – 170,000 PER DAY if we have nationwide mask mandates
𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐄 𝟐: 𝐃𝐀𝐈𝐋𝐘 𝐃𝐄𝐀𝐓𝐇𝐒 𝐏𝐄𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐘 (𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏)- 2,200 per day if we continue doing what we are right now- 6,000 per day if we ease restrictions- 1,300 per day if we have nationwide mask mandates
1. Yesterday, we saw 132,000 new cases (57% INCREASE in the past two weeks) and 1,223 deaths (12% INCREASE). Deaths are not decreasing – that’s a false narrative.
2. El Paso – This should be a cautionary tale for all of us. 1 month ago, El Paso was seeing 278 cases per day (7-day rolling average). Yesterday, El Paso had 1,619 cases per day (7-day rolling average). Hospitalizations in that same time period increased from 181 to 991, ICU patients increased from 71 to 284, and deaths increased from 3 to 18 in a single day. Cases are being driven by young people, but deaths are affecting 65+. All non-essential services are now shut down in El Paso County for 2 weeks. The situation in El Paso happened in a matter of weeks. I don’t know how to stress that more.
3. A note to church leaders – in many areas one of the ONLY places you can go in town without a mask is church. 𝐈𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐬𝐤 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐈𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐨𝐫𝐬, 𝐚𝐬𝐤 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐤𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐬𝐤 𝐨𝐧 – 𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 – 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝𝐬 – 𝐌𝐀𝐒𝐊𝐒. One of the riskiest place you can be is indoors – even riskier is being indoors while singing. You better believe I’ve pulled out some of my charismatic-root prayers against this virus and claimed Psalm 91 daily for months. But, I’ve also leaned heavily on wisdom. For your community, wear a mask and require others to do the same – even if you get pushback (as a pastor’s wife, I get those decisions are hard). I am seeing church leaders and congregants learn the hard way that the virus is real and should be taken seriously. Let’s preempt those experiences with what we know from the data – and simply wear a mask at all times. It’s not a lack of faith. It’s a statement of love and now courage.
If we are going to say “Faith over Fear”, let’s couple that with wisdom and loving our neighbors. Using prayer to combat this virus is not enough – Is that a reckless use of Psalm 91? Go here for more on that – https://tinyurl.com/yxsaatcf
4. A note to church congregants: If you go to a church that doesn’t require masking at all times, I would strongly encourage you to reconsider going in-person for a while – even if your leaders say it’s ok. Listen to the data on this one and stay home for a bit for virtual-church – especially if you are high-risk or someone in your home is.
5. A note to church leaders who are following the wise guidelines of masking at all times or meeting virtual, thank you. I know you have made or will have to make hard decisions in a loud world. So, thank you. The Smith fam is praying for you daily.
Let’s give our healthcare workers and communities the best shot possible. Let’s give our businesses the best shot to remain open. Let’s give our scientists time needed for treatments and vaccines. It’s coming, web-friends. But, they are not here yet.
-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist
Picture sources: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend
Daily cases and deaths: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Rural communities, state-by-state cases/deaths/positivity rates: https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐆𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐓 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐓𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐄𝐁𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐉𝐎𝐇𝐍 𝐒𝐍𝐎𝐖 𝐌𝐄𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐔𝐌:
GBD Part 1 – https://tinyurl.com/y3spdcpu2. GBD
GBD Part 2 – https://tinyurl.com/y4qywa9m3.
John Snow Memorandum Part 1 – https://tinyurl.com/y5r9wxzd4.
John Snow Memorandum Part 2 – https://tinyurl.com/y4ckxr9w