๐“๐ก๐ž ๐‰๐จ๐ก๐ง ๐’๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐Œ๐ž๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฆ – ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐š๐ฅ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐†๐๐ƒ

๐ŸšฉShort version: A group of well-known scientists (y’all, kind-of like the science-all-stars) wrote a data-driven response to the Great Barrington Declaration’s (GBD) herd immunity-approach in the Lancet (premier science journal). They named it the John Snow Memorandum. No, not that John (Jon) Snow from Game of Thrones. ๐Ÿ˜Š The original John Snow. ba-dum-ch. (If any of my students are reading this, they are probably laughing at that joke.)

๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿซ Quick epid-history-lesson: The original John Snow is the Founder-of-Modern-Epidemiology. He famously ripped a water pump handle off during the big London cholera outbreak in 1854. (Fun fact – he ripped it off because the common theory of the day was the thought that cholera was spread through “bad air”. So, he did an awesome epid-experiment through lots of data collecting and contact tracing and debunked the “bad air” theory – he found it was spread through water! Then he ripped the water pump handle off, which was the source of the outbreak, like.a.boss…ok, well that’s what I imagine he did. Still like.a.boss though – because he was right. And, the outbreak ended. He followed the data.) ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿซ

Ok, I digress. ๐–๐‡๐˜ ๐ƒ๐Ž๐„๐’ ๐“๐‡๐ˆ๐’ ๐Œ๐€๐“๐“๐„๐‘? ๐Ÿ˜Š

A few days ago we talked about the GBD – I did Part 1 and Part 2 if you want to go back and read those. In response to the GBD, the science-all-stars wrote a letter – the “John Snow Memorandum”. Ok, for the science nerd, that makes me happy.

๐๐ฎ๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐š๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐š๐ซ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฌ๐š๐ข๐. ๐‡๐ž๐ซ๐ž’๐ฌ ๐š ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ:

1. It was published in the Lancet – a premier, rigorously peer-reviewed, top-notch scientific journal. It’s one of the top, if not the top journal in science.

2. Many of the authors are very notable to the world of infectious diseases. Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Dr. Ilona Kickbusch , Dr. Angela L. Rasmussen, Dr. Gavin Yamey (a real-life-friend) are just some of the people who signed it. Go google them to see what I mean. #fangirl The point is they are well known and well respected to many in the infectious disease/epid/public health/medicine world with track records without side hustles. Just good science.

3. They discuss the issues with herd immunity proposed in the GBD and, more importantly, offer an alternative. Here’s a snippet of it: “๐Ž๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐š๐ ๐š๐ข๐ง, ๐ฐ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐š๐œ๐ž ๐ซ๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ž๐ฅ๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐ข๐ง ๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—…๐„๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฆ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ…๐‚๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐›๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐’Š๐’ ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’”๐’‰๐’๐’“๐’• ๐’•๐’†๐’“๐’Ž. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฌ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ž๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐’๐€๐‘๐’-๐‚๐จ๐•-๐Ÿ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ฅ๐ฌ… ๐’”๐’ ๐’๐’Š๐’‡๐’† ๐’„๐’‚๐’ ๐’“๐’†๐’•๐’–๐’“๐’ ๐’•๐’ ๐’๐’†๐’‚๐’“ ๐’๐’๐’“๐’Ž๐’‚๐’ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ž๐ [๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐] ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ.”

4. They also point to countries with robust public health responses that have worked: “๐‰๐š๐ฉ๐š๐ง, ๐•๐ข๐ž๐ญ๐ง๐š๐ฆ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐ž๐ฐ ๐™๐ž๐š๐ฅ๐š๐ง๐, ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐š๐ฆ๐ž ๐š ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ฐ ๐œ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ, ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ซ๐จ๐›๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐›๐ฅ๐ข๐œ ๐ก๐ž๐š๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฉ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐œ๐š๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฅ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐ž๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐ž๐š๐ซ-๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ž๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐œ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐ซ: ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ— ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐š๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐ž๐œ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐œ๐ข๐ž๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐š๐Ÿ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฏ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ฉ๐ž๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐ฌ ๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ.”

5. Then they ended with: “๐–๐ž ๐œ๐š๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐š๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ž ๐š๐ง ๐ž๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฉ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ž; ๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐š๐œ๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐›๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ž๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž.” I think John Snow would be proud. Maybe this is the 2020 pump handle?

The point is not to win an academic fight between two groups. The point is to let the data speak and respond responsibly. If you want to see the data this group points to, look in the source below. I would encourage you to go read the full Lancet article and memorandum. The group is not calling for full lockdowns – quite the opposite. They are asking for evidence-based, public-health approaches to avoid lockdowns and get to normalcy. Near normalcy really is possible. This won’t be forever, friends.

-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist

Sources: Here’s the full Lancet article with data sources at the end: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)32153-x

Here’s the John Snow Memorandum with the full write-up and to see the full list of signatories: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com Photo sources: Wikipedia and compiled by yours truly

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

<span>%d</span> bloggers like this: