๐ฉShort version: A group of well-known scientists (y’all, kind-of like the science-all-stars) wrote a data-driven response to the Great Barrington Declaration’s (GBD) herd immunity-approach in the Lancet (premier science journal). They named it the John Snow Memorandum. No, not that John (Jon) Snow from Game of Thrones. ๐ The original John Snow. ba-dum-ch. (If any of my students are reading this, they are probably laughing at that joke.)
๐ฉโ๐ซ Quick epid-history-lesson: The original John Snow is the Founder-of-Modern-Epidemiology. He famously ripped a water pump handle off during the big London cholera outbreak in 1854. (Fun fact – he ripped it off because the common theory of the day was the thought that cholera was spread through “bad air”. So, he did an awesome epid-experiment through lots of data collecting and contact tracing and debunked the “bad air” theory – he found it was spread through water! Then he ripped the water pump handle off, which was the source of the outbreak, like.a.boss…ok, well that’s what I imagine he did. Still like.a.boss though – because he was right. And, the outbreak ended. He followed the data.) ๐ฉโ๐ซ
Ok, I digress. ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐? ๐
A few days ago we talked about the GBD – I did Part 1 and Part 2 if you want to go back and read those. In response to the GBD, the science-all-stars wrote a letter – the “John Snow Memorandum”. Ok, for the science nerd, that makes me happy.
๐๐ฎ๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฌ๐๐ข๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐’๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ:
1. It was published in the Lancet – a premier, rigorously peer-reviewed, top-notch scientific journal. It’s one of the top, if not the top journal in science.
2. Many of the authors are very notable to the world of infectious diseases. Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Dr. Ilona Kickbusch , Dr. Angela L. Rasmussen, Dr. Gavin Yamey (a real-life-friend) are just some of the people who signed it. Go google them to see what I mean. #fangirl The point is they are well known and well respected to many in the infectious disease/epid/public health/medicine world with track records without side hustles. Just good science.
3. They discuss the issues with herd immunity proposed in the GBD and, more importantly, offer an alternative. Here’s a snippet of it: “๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง, ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐…๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฒ…๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐-๐๐จ๐-๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ… ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ [๐ฐ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐] ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ.”
4. They also point to countries with robust public health responses that have worked: “๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ง, ๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ง๐๐ฆ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐, ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ, ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐๐๐ซ-๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ซ: ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ.”
5. Then they ended with: “๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐; ๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐.” I think John Snow would be proud. Maybe this is the 2020 pump handle?
The point is not to win an academic fight between two groups. The point is to let the data speak and respond responsibly. If you want to see the data this group points to, look in the source below. I would encourage you to go read the full Lancet article and memorandum. The group is not calling for full lockdowns – quite the opposite. They are asking for evidence-based, public-health approaches to avoid lockdowns and get to normalcy. Near normalcy really is possible. This won’t be forever, friends.
-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist
Sources: Here’s the full Lancet article with data sources at the end: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)32153-x
Here’s the John Snow Memorandum with the full write-up and to see the full list of signatories: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com Photo sources: Wikipedia and compiled by yours truly
