Yesterday, I posted on this declaration from a 30,000 foot point of view. Today, I want to talk about the science behind it. In quick FB links or memes, these discussions become pendulum swings in both directions.
Be๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐ ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ : This is not a discussion about full throttle openings versus complete lockdowns (these are the pendulum swings). There is a middle ground – that sadly is not really being discussed right now by many. No one is advocating for another lockdown – we can get through this pandemic without one that protects the most vulnerable and our businesses (I’ve already written on this – go to the Table of Contents for those posts – look in the Economy section).
One side of the pendulum – We can all agree that lockdowns are not the answer and have significant ramifications on people, children, businesses, etc.
The other side of the pendulum – ๐๐ฎ๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ – ๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐. I know that it can sound like it is middle-ground.
But, it’s not. Let me show you from the data.
I’m going to link to another group (Dear Pandemic) that did an excellent post on this already. BTW, are you all following them? If not, you should. They are a great group of scientists (#allfemalescientists) and have a fancy website with a search tool if you have specific questions. Dear FB, I need one of those! =)
๐๐ค, ๐๐๐๐ค ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ:
1. The declaration essentially advocates to try get to herd immunity without precautions – except for protecting the elderly. But this would increase isolation for this group. And, also does not take into account the OTHER at-risk groups in the community for deaths and hospitalizations.
2. The declaration does not account for staggering amounts of hospitalizations, long COVID-19 haulers, and deaths in those under 65. The.numbers.are.staggering – if we choose this method. Especially since MANY under the age of 65 live with conditions that place them at-risk of COVID-19 complications (overweight, obesity, hypertension, asthma, etc). ****It’s not just the elderly that are at-risk.****
3. What about waning immunity? We know that immunity likely wanes after weeks/months – so, it’s risky to let this virus run through populations that could be re-infected again – and is the second infection more severe? Some evidence suggests that.
4. “False dichotomy between lockdown and โback to normalโ” – From Dear Pandemic. Herd immunity is a myth. Especially with COVID-19. The goal is not zero infections – but, it is not herd immunity through the declaration’s approach either.
๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฒ: Attempting herd immunity through natural infections leads to significant deaths/hospitalizations/long-haulers AND economic destruction. The middle ground of proper precautions protects both (again, see the Table of Contents on FB for that).
“๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ค๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐% ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ & ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ & ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ข๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ.” Now, here’s the link to the fantastic lengthy explanation from Dear Pandemic. I would encourage you to go read through all of it. – https://tinyurl.com/y58qmwud
-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist
