𝐖𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐛𝐚𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫? 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐩𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐲𝐨𝐮 ð°ð¡ð².

The US hit 200,000 deaths – which just seems hard to believe to me. (BTW, this is not 200,000 out of 330 million total in the US. That’s the wrong calculation people are using to downplay the severity of COVID-19. If you see the 0.997% statistic, that’s what I’m talking about. It’s the wrong calculation. It’s 200,000 out of those who have been sick.)

𝐋𝐞𝐭 𝐦𝐞 𝐠𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 – A new study estimates that ONLY 10% of Americans have been infected. Only 10%. 200,000 deaths. We are expecting to hit 400,000 by December. Think we have achieved herd immunity? Nope, there’s no place in the US that has achieved herd immunity. It’s just not true if you hear that. And, these statistics show why we are likely in for a bad winter unless we do something.

𝐖𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞? These two tools are really helpful and interactive. The tools are also weighted by population – this is helpful to compare apples to apples with states because some states are larger than others.

1. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ This tool shows county-level data showing risks of new infections per 100,000 population (Picture 1). You can also look at your state or county in the heat map.

2. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s This map shows the trend in daily new cases per capita – which should give us all pause (Picture 2). These color-coded risk levels were developed by a consortium of researchers and public health experts.

“The group advises states in the red category to issue stay-home orders. Orange states may need to consider stay-home orders, along with increased testing and contact tracing. Yellow states need to keep up social distancing and mask usage, and both yellow and green states should continue testing and contact tracing.”

Is that happening in your state? It’s not in mine and some efforts of testing and contact tracing are actually decreasing.

Picture 3 shows the hotspots in the country – go to the NPR website to see the full list of states. Stay vigilant, friends. I know we are all over COVID-19 (those of us in public health are over it more than anyone else) – because there has always been a way out of this and a better way of handling this pandemic).

Go to these posts for more on that:

1. Beware of a false narrative – https://tinyurl.com/y64klldr

2. How the pandemic defeated America – https://tinyurl.com/yxz5agl2 But, it is what it is at this point. We still do not have a national coordinated effort to lead us out of this even though we have the blueprint of what works and doesn’t work.

The good news: We know what to do and it’s simple! Mask, distance, outdoors, pay attention.

The bad news: It looks like COVID-19 is creeping back up in many areas of the country. Many experts are warning about a bad winter regarding infections and deaths. The heat map shows why.

-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist

Sources:

Deaths – https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

10% infection (showing we are not anywhere near herd immunity at 70%) – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext

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